Brazil: Ibovespa Falls as Oil Rally Resumes.

The Ibovespa fell 0.3% to close at 182,991 on Monday amid an unfavorable external backdrop, higher inflation projections and new election polls confirming a tight presidential race. Oil prices resumed their rally after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, renewing concerns that energy-driven inflation could keep interest rates elevated. Yields rose, pressuring credit-sensitive stocks. Major banks fell, with Itau and Bradesco down 1% each. Meanwhile, the BCB’s Focus survey showed that the market raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 4.92% to 4.99%, while the year-end 2026 Selic forecast remained at 13.5%. A new election poll showed President Lula widening his lead over Flavio Bolsonaro, who is viewed by markets as more fiscally restrictive amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity. Other notable laggards included Ambev (-0.8%), WEG (-1.9%) and Vivo (-2%). In contrast, Petrobras rose 1.5% and Vale added 0.5%.