The US PCE price index is expected to increase 0.4% month-over-month in August 2026, marking the biggest gain in three months, following a 0.2% rise in July. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise 0.3%, also the most in three months after a 0.2% rise. On an annual basis however, headline PCE inflation is expected to remain at 3.7% for a third consecutive month and the core rate is also seen steady at 3.3%, the same as in each of the previous two months. The personal consumption expenditures price index is the primary inflation gauge for the Fed and has been above the 2% target since 2021.