The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.74% on Thursday, extending a modest decline from the previous session, after rising to 4.81% earlier in the week, its highest level since October 2023. Comments from Fed Governor Waller that “if there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level” offered support to Treasuries. Also, the moderation in oil prices provided some additional relief from concerns over mounting inflationary pressures. Markets are currently pricing roughly a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike this month, down from around 70% earlier in the week, when a spike in oil prices heightened inflation concerns and following Fed Chair Warsh’s pledge at the Jackson Hole Symposium to keep inflation under control. Investors now await Friday’s jobs report for an update on the labour market, while the next key inflation readings are due next week.