The Brazilian real strengthened to around 5.10 per USD in September, reaching a three-week high following the release of the Genial/Quaest poll on the 2026 presidential election. The poll showed President Lula and Senator Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a technical tie in a potential October runoff, with Lula receiving 42% of voting intentions versus 41% for Bolsonaro. Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive, while elevated domestic yields and weak business activity continue to weigh on the economic outlook. Meanwhile, Brazil’s GDP expanded 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026, slightly above forecasts, driven mainly by agriculture. However, the detailed breakdown was weaker, suggesting economic momentum is fading despite a tight labor market and short-term demand stimulus measures. On the other hand, industrial production rose 0.2% month-on-month in July, rebounding after two consecutive monthly declines.