The Ibovespa rose 1.4% to close at 188,269 on Thursday, erasing earlier losses as the market priced in a higher probability of a change in power in October’s presidential election. Recent polls have shown Flavio Bolsonaro gaining ground in the presidential race, while the shift in odds on Polymarket added further momentum to the move on Thursday. Markets associate a potential Flavio Bolsonaro victory with expectations of greater fiscal austerity, while elevated domestic yields and weak business activity continue to weigh on the economic outlook. Gains were broad-based, with major banks posting sharp advances: Itau rose 1.8%, Bradesco gained 3.9%, and Banco do Brasil added 2.8%. Utilities also closed higher, with Sabesp up 2.2%. Rede D’Or (+3.1%) also outperformed. Petrobras rose 1.4% on higher oil prices, while Vale shed 1.1% as iron ore prices fell.