Analysts expect US core PCE inflation to slow to 0.06% m/m in June, down from 0.2% in May, likely lowering the y/y rate 0.1pp to 1.9% (1.88%). “Within the details of core PCE, the contribution from components covered by CPI data are likely to slow, contributing only 2.3bp to the June m/m increase after an 18.7bp contribution in May.” “While rent inflation in the June CPI report increased strongly, the core PCE price index places less weight on rent-related components. PPI-related components are likely to rebound in June, contributing roughly a weak 1bp to m/m core PCE inflation in June after a negative contribution in May.” “For non-core components, we expect a modest 0.2% m/m increase in food prices and a 0.3% m/m decline in energy prices, consistent with the June CPI report.” “Altogether, we expect headline PCE inflation to register 0.053% m/m in June, corresponding to 2.3% (2.26%) on a 12-month basis, unchanged from the 2.3y/y rate in May.”