27 September 2006, 14:59  Pound drops on downward revision to UK GDP

The pound was lower as data released this morning showed a downward revision to UK second-quarter GDP, while dovish comments in a speech from Monetary Policy Committee member David Blanchflower also weighed on the currency. Official data released this morning unexpectedly showed that the quarterly rate of growth for the second quarter was revised down to 0.7 pct from the previous estimate of 0.8 pct. Analysts had expected no change, although the annual rate was left intact at 2.6 pct, as forecast. Meamwhile, a dovish speech this morning by the MPC's David Blanchflower -- a relatively new member who was the only one to vote against an interest rate rise in August -- also weighed on the pound. Blanchflower said he sees risks of lower economic growth and inflation in the months ahead. He forecasts the UK labour market to weaken further and said he sees no evidence of any second-round effects on wages from higher oil prices. "Today's comments by David Blanchflower cement his place as currently the most dovish member of the Monetary Policy Committee, and it is clear that he leans towards the view that the eventual next move in interest rates should be down rather than up," said Howard Archer at Global Insight. On the downward GDP revision, he said the revision "does not materially change the outlook for interest rates". Nevertheless the fact that the GDP deflator was revised down to a 0.9 pct quarterly rise and a 2.2 pct rise on the year from 1.5 pct and 3.4 pct respectively, "may modestly ease inflationary concerns," he said.

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