18 September 2006, 11:51  Aust dlr opens lower as US unlikely to lift rates after tame CPI

The Australian dollar opened the week lower as its US counterpart gained as investors gambled that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) won't raise interest rates this week following tamer August inflation data. Over the weekend it reached a high of $US0.7562 and a low of 0.7505. A report from the University of Michigan showed Americans were more optimistic about the outlook for inflation and the economy as gasoline prices dropped. Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig said the numbers were not as favourable as some would like. "But they showed the CPI numbers down, and that's good news," he said. "How we balance those will be, I think, an important part of the discussion that goes forward." Meanwhile, Ms Hampton said some repositioning of US dollars ahead of the Group of Seven conference in Singapore over the weekend also hindered the local unit. "People were just happy to square up US dollar shorts," she said. "People are wary because last time after the G7 meeting we saw the US dollar fall quite significantly so I think there was some anticipation of that happening." Ms Hampton also noted that a comment by the French finance minister, Thierry Breton, repeated that the euro was fairly valued. "This encouraged the squaring up." The local dollar was also held down by a barrage of selling against the New Zealand dollar, Ms Hampton said. "The Aussie has underperformed all last week with lower commodity prices," she said. "We are expecting the top side to be around $US0.7560 but expect demand to emerge just above 0.7500. "We still got an environment of yield seeking investors ... but the key support level is 0.7470." Today Glenn Stevens takes over as Reserve Bank of Australia governor commences and he will be speaking on monetary policy in Singapore today. It is lite on the data front this week with August merchandise imports due today, followed by Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index of economic activity on Wednesday, and Reserve Bank of Australia monthly bulletin on Thursday.

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