21 July 2005, 10:18  Oil prices fell in Asian trade

Oil prices fell in Asian trade after data showed the impact on US oil inventories of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico was not as severe as expected, dealers said. At 11.45 am (0345 GMT), New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in September, was at 57.68 usd a barrel, down 34 cents from its close of 58.02 usd in the US overnight. The August contract expired Wednesday at 56.72 usd a barrel. Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo, said news of the smaller-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories caused prices to pull back. This showed that the impact of Hurricane Dennis on production platforms and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico was less severe than anticipated, he said. "People's expectations were far away from the reality. When their fears did not happen they had to sell off the market," Emori said. "I'm not too much bullish now because we don't have reasons to buy. We have enough inventory in the United States and we have enough crude oil supply from the OPEC countries. "Demand in the United States for gasoline is still strong but we can probably cover the demand." The Department of Energy (DoE) said US crude oil stocks fell 900,000 barrels to 320.1 mln barrels for the week ending July 15. Analysts' forecasts were for a 3.45-mln drop in the wake of production shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Dennis -- whose onset halted most US oil output in the region around July 10. The DoE also said petrol or gasoline stocks dropped 1.3 mln barrels, less than forecasts of a 1.5-mln decrease. At the same time, distillate products, used for heating oil and diesel, rose 2.3 mln barrels for the week, beating expectations of a 1.7-mln build. Emori said if market fundamentals were being properly reflected, prices should fall further to 55 usd and then 52 usd by the end of the year. However prices would remain volatile, with traders looking at short-term events such as hurricanes in the US and news of supply disruptions to make their moves. "Traders are looking at the very short-term, that's why prices are very choppy and volatile but if we look at the fundamentals, we should see cheaper prices," Emori said.

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