11 July 2005, 17:24  Dollar falls; trade data awaited

The dollar fell from a recent 14-month high versus the euro and 19-month highs versus sterling on Monday after weak U.S. jobs data on Friday hurt the dollar's rally and investors waited for U.S. trade data later this week. The euro gained some ground after Luxembourg approved the European Union constitution by a solid majority in a referendum over the weekend, while sterling benefited as the market saw a limited economic impact from last week's bombings in London. U.S. employers added just 146,000 new jobs in June, fewer than expected. "There is still a bit of a hangover from the jobs data," said Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London. "And the market is switching its focus from growth to economic imbalances." U.S. trade figures on Wednesday are expected to show the near-record deficit widening again in May, which should bring investors' attention to the structural imbalances in the world's largest economy. "There is some profit-taking after jobs U.S. data today," said Paul Mackel, currency strategist at ABN AMRO in London. "And it seems we are settling into a period of calm." Luxembourg approved the EU constitution with the "yes" vote at 56.5 percent on Sunday, averting the threat of Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker's resignation. "(The Luxembourg approval) is a small positive for the euro. But the market thinks the constitution is dead and the worst political news is already in the price," said Adam Cole, senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets. "We've had the Luxembourg vote over the weekend and it was a 'yes' vote by a wider majority and that's helped the euro against the dollar and also against sterling," said Daragh Maher, currency strategist at Calyon. "The market is massively net short of euros so there might be a pause but it's hard to make a bullish case for the euro through the week." Moreover, expectations for steady to lower interest rates in Europe have also weighed on the euro. The European Central Bank has kept interest rates at 2 percent for the past 2 years although speculation of a cut is mounting. The Bank of England has moved closer to cutting rates. The Federal Reserve has steadily lifted its funds rate to 3.25 percent and is expected to tighten further toward the end of the year. The dollar bought 111.90 yen, down about 0.3 percent from the level in late U.S. trade, as the Japanese currency was helped by higher Tokyo stock prices and Japanese exporters' selling of the dollar to convert overseas profits to yen. After the jobs report, the dollar hit a 14-month high of 112.60 yen.

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved