27 May 2005, 16:19  The euro remained steady near seven-month lows against the dollar

The euro remained steady near seven-month lows against the dollar as investors squared up positions ahead of the French referendum on the EU constitution on Sunday. The consolidation helped the single European currency rise to 1.2539 usd in early European trading from a low overnight of 1.2492 usd, its lowest level since October 19. Most analysts think the impact of a 'no' vote has been largely priced in and the euro is unlikely to fall any further today as investors seek to limit their risk profile ahead of the referendum and the three-day weekend in the UK and the US. Оpinion polls continue to suggest that 54 pct of the French plan to vote 'no' despite yesterday's television plea by French president Jacques Chirac. "It should be said that bearing in mind the overwhelming bearish economic and political uncertainties present in the market this week, the mere fact that the euro has managed to stay above the 1.25 usd mark is not that bad," said Audrey Childe-Freeman, analyst at CIBC World Markets. Analysts said a 'no' vote is likely to hurt the single currency in the immediate aftermath as it may well engender some political uncertainties, which could possibly make the governing of the euro more difficult. However, Mark Austin, global head of currency strategy at HSBC, said the euro may well be marked down initially on Sunday night if the French reject the constitution but may soon regain its poise next week. "The speculative sector of the market appears to be quite short of euros, and market attention will rapidly turn away from European constitutional issues and towards Friday's US payrolls report, where we see a downside risk," he said. The euro has been undermined in recent weeks by fears the French will vote against the constitution as well as concerns about the state of the euro zone economy. Investors have placed greater importance on developments related to interest rate differentials than structural concerns relating to the US's twin deficits. Economic concerns surrounding the euro zone mounted this week after another disappointing German business survey from the Ifo institute, while any fears that the US is experiencing a "soft patch" diminished after stronger than expected economic growth in the first quarter. Today's US economic data, which includes personal income and spending for April are both expected to come in strong, but most interest will focus on the PCE core deflator, the preferred inflation measure of the US Federal Reserve's chairman Alan Greenspan. "Another reading comfortably south of 2.0 pct would reinforce the probability for gradual, rather than aggressive, Fed tightening and allow yields further out the curve to remain at their current, low level," said HSBC's Austin. Meanwhile, the yen steadied after rebounding overnight following strong Japanese retail sales data. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said retail sales increased 3.9 pct in April from a year earlier, the fourth rise in six months and the second straight monthly rise. The over-riding yen theme remains the Chinese attitude to revaluation of the yuan, with most analysts predicting a change some time this year. US Treasury Secretary John Snow even told Congress yesterday he was confident that China would change the decade-old peg within the next six months.

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