2 May 2005, 14:23  Euro mounts a comeback

Despite yet more woeful eco data from the Euro-zone, the euro found some support in the FX markets tonight after the latest polling data indicated that the "yes" votes were finally pulling ahead if the "no" votes on the EU referendum scheduled for May 29th in France. For the past two weeks the euro has been weighed down by speculation that France would derail plans for EU integration by rejecting the EU Constitution - a vote that must have unanimous consent of member states. Tonight's polling results from UK's Guardian may assuage some of the market worries especially in light of the fact that the survey was taken before the former French PM Lionel Jospin threw his support behind the "yes" vote which will likely garner even more momentum for the "yes" camp. Although the geo-political concerns are slowly becoming resolved, on the economic front the news remains bleak. Tonight's Manufacturing PMI data declined to 49.2, contracting for the first time in two years as high oil prices depressed demand. If the situation does not quickly improve, the ECB may be forced to cut, rather than hike rates as the summer progresses, leading to an even wider interest rate differential between the euro and the dollar. For the time being the dollar bulls control their own destiny.

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