15 March 2002, 15:40 Forex - Euro meets resistance vs dollar in midday trade, Swiss franc back up
LONDON (AFX) - The euro met resistance against the dollar in midday
trade but the Swiss franc rebounded as rumoured Swiss National Bank
intervention failed to materialise, dealers said.
The euro has been buoyed in recent days, partly on the dollar's
weakness, but encouraging economic data has also prompted some buying.
Today's German retail sales data was a case in point. Retail sales
rebounded in January, partially reversing the very steep fall in
December.
"The good start in Jan means any decline in sales could be very
modest in Q1, underpinning a return to slightly positive private
consumption," said Royal Bank of Scotland economist Nigel Anderson.
Nevertheless, the euro failed to break through the 0.8850 usd
resistance level -- but if it does, then it could swiftly reclaim the
0.90 usd levels, according to Russell Jones, global head of foreign
exchange research at Lehman Brothers.
However, Jones reckons it will probably fail to break through today
as US data this afternoon is likely to support the dollar.
"The data will have to be a long way from consensus," he said.
US industrial production data is expected to increase 0.3 pct in
February after falling 0.1 pct in January. A rise in industrial output
in February would mark the first gain in production since Sept 2000,
apart from a small rise in July 2001.
And the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March
is expected to rise to 92.5 after falling slightly to 90.7 in February.
Meanwhile the Swiss franc was buoyed after the Swiss National Bank
failed to intervene in some way to stem the currency's sharp
appreciation. The Swiss franc has gained ground recently as tensions
grow in the Middle East and the consequent rise in the price of oil.
Hans Redeker, BNP Paribas' global head of forex strategy, said the
fall in dollar/Swiss since February's 1.7230 Sfr has lasted longer than
any prior corrective decline since the September 2001 low.
"This suggests the current decline is not just a corrective slide,
but rather a new dollar/Swiss franc downtrend," he said.
However, Lehman Brothers' Jones thinks the dollar will soon recover
as the SNB will "have to ultimately do something about the Swiss
franc's strength".
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