19 October 2001, 12:17 Forex - Euro rangebound in midafternoon Tokyo on steady ECB rates
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The euro was rangebound in midafternoon trade
after the European Central Bank left key interest rates unchanged at
its central council meeting overnight, dealers said.
"If the ECB does not move to cut rates at next week's meeting,
disappointment over the monetary policy management by the ECB may
re-appear and exert renewed downward pressure on the euro," North
Pacific Bank foreign exchange manager Toshikazu Shimamura said.
"The view that the ECB's rate action is running behind the actual
deterioration of the economic fundamentals in euro-zone countries (has
already resurfaced), Shimamura said."
German finance minister Hans Eichel said the German economy is
likely to grow by only 0.75 pct this year, instead of the 2.25 pct
predicted in the spring.
"If there is no rate move at next week's ECB meeting and if the
euro fails to hold onto the 0.90 usd level, then the currency may be
pushed lower towards the 0.88-0.89 usd level," Shimamura said.
"But, if there is rate cut, and sentiment towards the euro
improves, the euro can test the recent resistance of around 0.9350."
Mizuho Securities chief market analyst Yasunari Ueno said he
expects the ECB to offer a 25 basis point rate cut by the Nov-8 ECB
meeting, at the latest.
The dollar was firmer against the yen, but was rangebound overall
due to a lack of fresh trading leads, while concerns over the economic
problem are supporting the downside, but the spreading bio-terrorism in
the US is weighing on its topside, dealers said.
State Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Heizo Takenaka said
this morning Japan cannot avoid negative growth for the year to March
2002, adding that the economic situation is becoming severe after the
Sept 11 attacks on the US.
"Basically, Japanese economic fundamental news will not have any
lasting impact," Chuo Mitsui Trust and Banking Co Ltd foreign exchange
assistant manager Tomoyuki Nakamura said.
Meantime, CBS News announced that an employee worked in the office
of anchor Dan Rather has contracted skin anthrax.
While the news itself did not pressure the dollar so strongly,
Mizuho's Ueno said there is a chance that the spread of the anthrax
problem may delay the process of economic package formulation.
North Pacific's Shimamura said he expects the dollar-yen to
continue to be bound in the 120-122 yen trading range, unless
surprising news emerges.
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