1 October 2001, 11:07 Forex - Dollar rangebound in midafternoon Tokyo ahead of NAPM/FOMC
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar was rangebound in midafternoon
trading ahead of the release today of the September US National
Association of Purchasing Managers' manufacturing index and tomorrow's
FOMC meeting, dealers said.
The release earlier today of the Bank of Japan's Tankan report
failed to have any lasting impact, as "the market had well prepared for
a sharp deterioration of the business confidence DI," said Yasuji
Yamanaka deputy general manager of the treasury department at Nikko
Trust and Banking Co Ltd.
"However, the poor result made it harder for participants to buy
into the the yen actively," he added.
In the latest Tankan survey, the large manufacturers' diffusion
index (DI) came in at minus 33, compared with market forecasts of minus
24 to minus 31.
The surveyed manufacturers forecast DI will improve to minus 31 in
the December Tankan report.
However, Industrial Bank of Japan economist Atsuo Tominaga said he
sees strong downside risk to the future trend of business sentiment for
large manufacturers.
"Most firms apparently were still unable to fully gauge the full
impact of the Sept 11 terrorist attacks and the further deterioration
of domestic demand," he said.
"Many firms expect a slowdown in the export downturn in the second
half, which indicates that they are still betting on a recovery in the
US economy.
"So, if there are any additional shocks to the already weakening
economic activity, the DI of large manufacturers can trend towards the
all-time low," Tominaga said.
The large manufacturers DI reached a record low of minus 51 in Dec
1998.
Despite the weak Tankan result, the dollar failed to gain
significant ground due to caution ahead of the NAPM data, the first
major business sentiment report to follow the September 11 terrorist
attacks, dealers said.
"The focus of the market will continue to be on the extent of the
deterioration of the US economy, with the successive rate cuts since
the beginning of this year failing to bolster activity notably,"
Yamanaka said.
The consensus view in the market is that the US Federal Open Market
Committee will ease rates by 50 basis points at tomorrow's meeting.
Dealers said that sell orders from Japanese exporters, which have
just opened their second half accounts, will continue to weigh on the
top-side of the dollar, while intervention fears are expected to
support its downside.
"With the first half account already closed, the authority will no
longer try to push down the value of the yen, but they are expected to
continue to try to prevent any sharp appreciation of the yen," Yamanaka
said.
"So, the dollar/yen is most likely to trend in the 117.00-120.50
yen range for the time being."
The euro was firmer against the dollar, but confined to a
relatively small trading band ahead of the US NAPM data and the FOMC
meeting, dealers said.
"Given the underlying downside risk surrounding the US economy, the
euro still has a chance of testing the 0.9250 usd level," Yamanaka
said.
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