21 September 2001, 15:35 OUTLOOK - UK data to show more signs of economic imbalance next week
LONDON (AFX) - UK economic figures to be released next week are
expected to show further signs of imbalance between robust domestic
consumption and the weak international environment, economists said.
Current account figures for the second quarter are expected to show
that UK consumers are still spending and sucking in imports while
export growth is expected to slow against the background of weakening
international demand.
"The general trend is one of weakening, with a slowing global
economy and with rate cuts propping up the domestic economy," Philip
Shaw, chief economist at Investec said.
Final second-quarter GDP figures (3rd revision) are expected to
remain unchanged from the previous figures. National Statistics is to
introduce major changes in the way it calculates the figures, including
estimates of personal imports and smuggling of alcohol and tobacco.
Economists said it was difficult to say what effect the changes would
have and that consequently the previous revision were their best
estimate.
Economists' forecasts for UK economic figures due the week from
Sept 24 (percentage changes unless otherwise specified):
AFX CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
TUESDAY SEPT 25
Q2 Current account (9.30 am) -5.0 bln stg -0.2 bln
Final Q2 GDP (9.30 am)
quarter-on-quarter +0.3 +0.3
year-on-year +2.1 +2.1
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