10 September 2001, 19:24  FULL: US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar bounces after Friday's slide

Cornelius Luca //
New York, Sept. 10 (BridgeNews) - The U.S. dollar is showing incipient signs of recovery after sliding Friday in the wake of a much worse than expected jobs data for August. Currency traders will keep their eyes on the domestic stocks after Dow Jones Industrial Average's 2.4% drop dragged the greenback down in the previous session. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill's optimistic view that the U.S. economy will recover later this year has yet to impact the markets.

A recent bout of demand vaulted dollar/yen, but the pair remained confined by two key pivots at 119.65 and 121.05. (Story .879) Euro/dollar fell from a six-day high of 0.9078, while dollar/Swiss franc reciprocated with a rebound from a six-day low of 1.6718. Sterling/dollar remains firm after extending its Friday's gains to a new six-month high of 1.6793, while dollar/Canada trimmed gains after marking a fresh five-month high of 1.5696.
There are no market-moving domestic events scheduled before Friday's August data, which feature producer price index, retail sales, and industrial production and capacity utilization.

Current Previous Change Global Global
NY open NY close low high

USD/JPY 120.55 120.12 0.43 119.78 120.70
EUR/USD 0.9040 0.9073 -0.0033 0.9027 0.9078
EUR/JPY 108.99 109.00 -0.01 108.40 109.13
GBP/USD 1.4637 1.4615 0.0022 1.4610 1.4676
USD/CHF 1.6755 1.6728 0.0027 1.6718 1.6793
USD/CAD 1.5664 1.5655 0.0009 1.5659 1.5696
AUD/USD 0.5121 0.5189 -0.0068 0.5121 0.5192

Steady, if light, demand exploded in early U.S. trading, lifting USD/JPY trough stops at 120.25. Resistance emerges at 121.05 from the Gann 50-point pivot that targets 120.55 and 121.55.
The market failed to react to Japanese officials' comment on the yen and Japan's economic data.
Japanese Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Haruhiko Kuroda said the euro needed to recover further and yen strength was not in line with fundamentals.
Vice Finance Minister Toshiro Muto also said the Ministry of Finance will take appropriate action in the foreign exchange markets if necessary. However, he also noted there are no options except monitoring the markets for now. Muto's comment failed to move the foreign exchange market. The foreign exchange market has not been very sensitive to yen comments by Japanese officials lately.
Japan's domestic wholesale price index fell 0.9% on year in August, the Bank of Japan said. The August fall was the largest since September 1999 when the WPI declined 1.3%. The data indicated deflation pressure remains strong.
Japan's machinery makers said the value of orders from the private sector, excluding orders for ships and those from the electric power industry, in July, was down an adjusted 1.6% on month. The figure is worse than the average economists' outlook of a 0.8% drop.
The intraday outlook is slightly bullish, with buy-stops seen above 121.05.

Support: 120.07 (20-day moving average), 119.78 (overnight low), 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August 1998-December 1999 downtrend), 118.45 (Aug. 31 low; 3-month low), 118.30 (June 1 low; 3-month low), 118.25 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 117.75/118.75).
Resistance: 120.70 (overnight high), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 121.53 (Sept. 6 high), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.34 (100-day moving average), 122.77 (60-day moving average),

EUR/USD fell from a 6-day high of 0.9078 after failing to dislodge the resistance of the 20-day moving average at 0.9087. The pair remains in a mixed mode after its apparent downturn was reversed by poor U.S. data.
The intraday outlook is mixed..

Support: 0.9027 (overnight low), 0.8963 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8954 (200-day moving average), 0.8898 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 6-Aug. 22 uptrend), 0.8824 (Sept. 6 low), 0.8793 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 6-Aug. 22 uptrend), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8763 (60-day moving average).
Resistance: 0.9078 (overnight high), 0.9087 (20-day moving average), 0.9136 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.9240 (Aug. 22 high; 5-month high), 0.9382 (March 2 peak), 0.9446 (Feb. 1 peak), 0.9595 (Jan. 5 high; six-month peak).

EUR/JPY is trading water near a 10-day high of 109.13. The cross is testing the support of the 20-day moving average at 109.09.
The intraday outlook is slightly bullish.

Support: 108.40 (overnight low), 107.99 (60-day moving average), 107.53 (200-day moving average), 107.18 (100-day moving average), 105.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 105.53 (Sept. 4 low; 2-month low), 104.54 (June 20 low).

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