24 August 2001, 16:02 OUTLOOK 22 out of 31 economists see ECB rate cut Aug 30
FRANKFURT (AFX) - The European Central Bank is expected to cut its
main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 pct at Thursday's
governing council meeting, according to economists polled by AFX News
and Agence France-Presse.
Out of 31 economists polled, 22 said they expect the ECB to cut
interest rates on Thursday. Seventeen said they expect the ECB to cut
rates to 4.25 pct at the meeting, while five economists expect the ECB
to make a large cut of 50 basis points.
Only nine economists believe the cut will be delayed until
September, and all economists polled forecast the ECB will have cut
rates by 25 basis points by the Sept 27 meeting at the latest.
Economists said the ECB will reduce rates as it is now clear
inflation is moderating throughout the euro zone, and there is mounting
evidence the bank is now concerned about the growth slowdown.
However they added it is very difficult to predict at which of the
next meetings the ECB will make the interest rate cut, as leading
governing council heavyweights have yet to give the market any guidance
through speeches or comments.
By the end of the year, 19 economists expect that the main
refinancing rate will have been lowered to 4.00 pct, while seven expect
cuts to 3.75 pct. Only five are forecasting a single 25 basis points
cut by the end of the year.
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