9 May 2001, 18:07 US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar extends gains on weak German data (part2)
* EUR/USD declined to a 20-day low of 0.8811 on additional poor German
data, as the March industrial production declined due to bad weather.
Fears of a bad = number pressured EUR/USD lower before the release, apart
from a brief spike higher when a German account was rumored to buy around
400 million EUR from the 0.8820s. After the figure came in even
worse-than-feared at down 3.7% on the month, the pair dropped to its
20-day low.
The pair held above technical support at 0.8800-10 amid talk of bids
ahead of a 0.8800 options play. Speculation the ECB will continue to defy
calls to cut rates was cited as a further negative. German wise man
Wiegand and BBK's Kuehbacher both said the ECB couldn't ease monetary
policy at the moment.
The CHF put in a good performance as SNB President Roth repeated the
Swiss economy was in a good state. EUR/CHF slipped to an 8-day low of
1.5384.
The EUR/USD outlook is mixed to slightly bearish.
Support: 0.8811 (overnight low), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement
level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8695 (April 18 low; 4-1/2-month
low).
Resistance: 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov.
27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8858 (overnight high), 0.8917 (20-day moving
average), 0.8939 (200-day moving average), 0.8963 (50% Fibonacci
retracement level of the June-Oct. downtrend), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend), 0.9091 (April 5
peak), 0.9127 (March 21 peak), 0.9136 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
of the June-October downtrend).
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